There has been a definite vibe shift around submitting test scores to even test optional colleges. Three years ago, most families’ first question on consult calls was “But do test scores even matter anymore?” For most students trying to gain admission into competitive colleges, the answer was “Yes.” But parents were skeptical and, if a student had a bad day on an official test, ready to throw in the towel and apply test optional.
Times have changed.
Now, more often than parents asking if test scores matter, I find myself reminding more parents that the vast majority of colleges are test optional and that their kids (especially if they’re full-pay, even if this is an unfortunate reality) can still go to good schools without SAT® or ACT® scores.
There wasn’t any official message that went out to everyone. No public service announcement. And the vast majority of colleges are still test optional.
So what changed?
People gradually experienced reality and updated their views. They saw firsthand and secondhand from others that students who submitted good test scores (above a college’s 25th percentile) had increased admissions chances — even if the colleges were still proclaiming that non-submitting students would not be disadvantaged in the admissions process. Again, anecdotally, we have seen some colleges in particular have very strong preferences for students with test scores: Boston College, Duke, Villanova, etc.
But, besides anecdotally, can we quantify this vibe shift? Turns out, yes, we can.
Quantifying the Vibe Shift
This past admissions cycle, there were still more student that did not submit test scores than did. But there was a 1% decrease in the percentage of applicants not submitting, and there was 11% increase in the percentage submitting.
But, the behavior of applicants depended very heavily on their demographics.
For instance, almost twice as many first-generation applicants did not submit test scores.
But among, non-first generation students, a majority did submit test scores — and the shift this past cycle was more significant than any since 2020. Applicants from this group not reporting scores dropped 8%, while those reporting scores increased 7%.
The same trend held for underrepresented minorities, fee-waiver eligible applicants, etc. For every demographic, the more affluent the demographic, the higher the score submitter rate.
Even when just looking at applicants from zip codes above the national median income (so not even the wealthiest zip codes), applicants who submitted test scores outnumbered those who did not.
Informed Vibes
For most people, they just felt that testing was coming back. They didn’t really know how they knew that more students were submitting test scores again, but, still, they were seeking out prep and testing. For others, the vibes were informed by data.
The New York Times piece, “The Misguided War on the SAT,” did a lot to spread awareness that test scores are more predictive than high schools of success at Ivy or Ivy-Plus colleges.
Other pieces highlight just how inflated grades are, such as the recent piece (too recent to have influenced the last admissions cycle but emblematic of the cultural awareness of grade inflation) that detailed the case of a Tennessee teen who graduated with a 3.4 GPA but could not read the words on his diploma (read similar cases here, here, here, here, here, and here). Recently, four former supervisors at the Asbury Park School District in New Jersey filed a suit against the school district after they were, allegedly, fired for revealing how the school was manipulating students’ grades, attendance records, and graduation requirements in order to make it look as if students were more proficient and graduating at higher rates than they were.
The data support that grade inflation is far from simply anecdotal.
But let’s do a case study of a test-optional college to see just how much double-speak there is and why families do not trust colleges when they’re told that the college is test-optional. Let’s consider the case of the University of Southern California, a fantastic school with tons of applicants (79,936 applicants in the 2023-2024 admissions cycle):
- USC sounds very test-optional:
- “We know these are the buzzing questions in the back of your mind. So, let’s clear a few things up! When we say USC is test-optional, we truly mean that. This is not a trick, or a calculated ploy aimed at your downfall. It is up to you, as the applicant, to decide for yourself if you wish to have an exam score considered, whether the SAT or ACT.” (USC blog post on Dec. 17th, 2024)
- “Applicants will not be penalized or put at a disadvantage if they choose not to submit SAT or ACT scores.” (USC admissions website)
- But… then the words of its dean of admissions, and — most importantly — its actions seem to contradict its professions of being truly test optional.
- “[SAT and ACT] scores help us. We do see value in using the number to help predict a student’s first year GPA.” (Kirk Brennan, Associate Dean and Director of Undergraduate Admission at USC on the College Admissions Process Podcast on Feb. 3rd, 2025)
- Based on USC’s own data, students who submitted test scores in the 2023-2024 admissions cycle were admitted at almost 2x the rate of students who did not submit test scores (36% of applicants submitted test scores, 51% of admitted students submitted test scores, so when you do the math, students submitting test scores were admitted at 184% the rate of non-submitters).
Parents have grown wise to the double-speak of colleges. At the same time, parents are seeing the news that more colleges (most recently the University of Pennsylvania, as of 2/14/25) are returning to test required admissions. UPenn joins the list of over 120 other colleges that have returned to test required admissions, including Harvard, Yale, MIT, Stanford, Caltech, Brown, Cornell, Dartmouth, etc. Test scores not only help students get admitted to college but help students get more merit aid and more scholarships — at many schools, test scores can get students automatic scholarships.
And, as we recently shared, more top schools are also expecting that, if a student has an AP or IB class listed on their transcript, the corresponding AP or IB exam score will be listed in the application. This expectation coincides with grade inflation as well: because grades are so inflated, top colleges care more about what the AP exam score was than the grade in an AP class (because a student with an “A” in AP U.S. History, for instance, might have a 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 on the AP U.S. History exam, and those scores likely give more accurate information about a student’s knowledge of U.S. History than does the “A” in the class).
Future Implications
I expect the current trend (more colleges going back to test required and more students submitting test scores) to continue — and to accelerate. In the long run, if a college doesn’t go back to test required, it will lose prestige because families and employers will have less certainty about its graduates (with no exit exam, at least an entrance exam ensures a common bar for academic preparedness of students entering the college). The data (that SAT/ACT scores are 3.9 betters predictors than are high school grades of success at top colleges) also signals that colleges that do not prioritize test scores in admissions are not prioritizing academic achievement. And isn’t the primary point of college to achieve academically?
With respect to AP and IB exams, because grade inflation has shown no signs of relenting, I expect selective colleges to continue the trend of expecting that, for every AP or IB class listed on a transcript, an AP or IB exam score will be listed in the application. This expectation could also lessen the arms race for students to take AP and IB classes: there will be less interest in taking them if the score at the end (which is objectively difficult to attain) is what matters to colleges and not so much the grade in the class (which is quite subjective and typically inflated).
I could be wrong, but for the last few years, we have been calling each trend in testing and college admissions quite accurately (see here, here, and here). If you’d like advice on the best plan for your child’s prep, testing, and/or college applications, feel free to reach out to us anytime.
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